jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 3, 2014 17:39:22 GMT -5
Let the boomers begin. Typical spring thunderstorm weather for Friday, in our neck of the woods. Folks in ArkLaMiss region probably are disagreeing with me right about now. They're getting rocked. Our atmosphere won't be quite as volatile on Friday 4/4 but we should still expect daytime heating to throw a good thunderstorm or two our way.
Sunday is a whole nuther ballgame. I haven't reviewed the NOAA text discussion for Sunday afternoon into Monday, but that is when I would expect our potential for some severe weather to increase a couple of notches.
When I get time to read the NOAA site and look at a few more maps I'll post more up on it.
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Post by greene728 on Apr 3, 2014 21:46:46 GMT -5
Well I wadded on over and I'm proud to be here! Missed your updates 60 and I'll be tuning in tomorrow and Sunday!
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blood
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Post by blood on Apr 4, 2014 1:45:21 GMT -5
Well I wadded on over and I'm proud to be here! Missed your updates 60 and I'll be tuning in tomorrow and Sunday! good to have you here brother.... Now keep your hands out of my cooler!
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blood
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Post by blood on Apr 4, 2014 6:43:28 GMT -5
Looks like the NWS has extended the Tornado watch area in Alabama now! I'm ready for some spring storms!!
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 4, 2014 11:16:47 GMT -5
Timing is everything. Looks like Monday afternoon / Evening might be some prime roof sittin weather watchin conditions for some of our West Ga. members. (they are the only ones that do that) We will be looking at major instability with a ton of hot, not warm, but hot gulf moisture welling up through Ms/Al&Ga. 500mb winds will be topping 90kts (115+mph) which spells mucho turbulenco in the upper atmosphere. Lifted index will be well into the negative numbers, which means plenty of updraft will exist. 3km helicity is scary good for twisty things (3km helicity is the potential for wind shear from ground level up to around 700mb height. Anything in the range of 250 and above is sufficient for tornado formation) Enough talk. Here's the maps I'm drawing all of this from. I'll talk more about timing as we get closer.
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keebs
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Post by keebs on Apr 4, 2014 11:29:25 GMT -5
I'm on board, watching & waiting..........
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 4, 2014 11:37:24 GMT -5
Don't know why, but I figured I'd take a gander at the 850mb wind speeds for the same time frame on Monday. Sheesh Louise........ 850mb is 4781ft. and this is clearly showing 50kt winds from SOWEGA up through NEGA. ECentGA is still capping at 40kt winds. 50kts is 57.5 mph. That's dang near 60mph, and that's winds aloft just above ground level. We're not talking gusts, we're talking constant winds. There is going to be some might powerful shear available for this SE system.
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jmffish
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Post by jmffish on Apr 4, 2014 11:37:26 GMT -5
I be here, when I am not in the rod dungeon....
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troyg
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Post by troyg on Apr 4, 2014 11:50:59 GMT -5
Ok, so after 5 attempts at getting in here, I made it...All I read is- I am going to have a migraine on Monday due to the pressure changes...awesome, I'll just start taking my meds now.
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Apr 4, 2014 12:26:02 GMT -5
Great, just great, I start midnight shift Monday.
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jeffraines
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Post by jeffraines on Apr 4, 2014 12:40:18 GMT -5
Great, just great, I start midnight shift Monday. I'm on till midnight Monday. Already had one unplanned shut down today,a SCADA issue.
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 4, 2014 15:10:33 GMT -5
Great, just great, I start midnight shift Monday. I'm on till midnight Monday. Already had one unplanned shut down today,a SCADA issue. Scada = what Quack and his buddies do when they see the game warden pullin up to their dove field....
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jeffraines
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Post by jeffraines on Apr 4, 2014 15:26:13 GMT -5
I'm on till midnight Monday. Already had one unplanned shut down today,a SCADA issue. Scada = what Quack and his buddies do when they see the game warden pullin up to their dove field.... LOL,yep
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Apr 4, 2014 15:39:40 GMT -5
I'm too old and fat to run, plus our GW has a dog !!
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Post by gobbleinwoods on Apr 4, 2014 17:01:20 GMT -5
I'm too old and fat to run, plus our GW has a dog !! bambam.
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 4, 2014 17:52:47 GMT -5
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 4, 2014 18:05:44 GMT -5
I rarely do this, especially pre-three days out. But here's my out on a limb severe potential map.
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Post by greene728 on Apr 4, 2014 20:57:57 GMT -5
I'm gonna need you to move that red area either north or south round a hunerd miles cause its all over me!
Seriously, thanks 60. I feel safer having found you this time of year!
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 4, 2014 21:17:26 GMT -5
I hope I can make it go away all together instead of just moving it. As exciting as this time of year is to watch on the maps and radar, there is a high level of anxiety that goes with it when this stuff gets real and actually happens, even if I did luck up and get it right.
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blood
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Post by blood on Apr 5, 2014 7:39:09 GMT -5
BRING IT!!!!
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 5, 2014 8:32:57 GMT -5
This is why I don't generally post maps for potential. This mornings GFS runs have the CAD dominating the northern half of the state, with the exception of maybe Calhoun up through the tri-state corners and extreme SOWEGA and SEGA. In essence it has knocked this big ball of energy down to a mere rain event, and lots of it.
We'll see how that develops over the next 36 hours though. I'm not sold on any forecast anymore until I'm within a 12 hour window. That's just how quirky and waffly the models have been all winter, and it seems they will continue that trend into the spring, which is very frustrating.
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Post by jmffish on Apr 5, 2014 15:26:28 GMT -5
This is why I don't generally post maps for potential. This mornings GFS runs have the CAD dominating the northern half of the state, with the exception of maybe Calhoun up through the tri-state corners and extreme SOWEGA and SEGA. In essence it has knocked this big ball of energy down to a mere rain event, and lots of it. We'll see how that develops over the next 36 hours though. I'm not sold on any forecast anymore until I'm within a 12 hour window. That's just how quirky and waffly the models have been all winter, and it seems they will continue that trend into the spring, which is very frustrating. I read the disclaimer, calm down, have another cold one...lol, those who have stuck with you know you don't post "out on a limb " stuff usually....this winter pattern would drive even a paid weather man to drink
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blood
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Post by blood on Apr 5, 2014 17:25:59 GMT -5
This is why I don't generally post maps for potential. This mornings GFS runs have the CAD dominating the northern half of the state, with the exception of maybe Calhoun up through the tri-state corners and extreme SOWEGA and SEGA. In essence it has knocked this big ball of energy down to a mere rain event, and lots of it. We'll see how that develops over the next 36 hours though. I'm not sold on any forecast anymore until I'm within a 12 hour window. That's just how quirky and waffly the models have been all winter, and it seems they will continue that trend into the spring, which is very frustrating. I read the disclaimer, calm down, have another cold one...lol, those who have stuck with you know you don't post "out on a limb " stuff usually....this winter pattern would drive even a paid weather man to drink I'll drink to that!!! Anyone want to join me?
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 5, 2014 18:39:17 GMT -5
Crazy stuff, the models keep showing the CAD stronger and stronger, through NCentGa now all of the way down into CentAl. Using all of the parameters as before, looks like the strongest possibility for really nasty stuff is from around B'ham to Cullman right before this front encounters the CAD and gets blown apart, resulting in just a rain event for most of Ga.
You got your wish Greene.......So far.
Apparently from now on, I'll I have to do is create my very own severe potential map and all of the nasty stuff will go away. It must be a form of Murphy's Law that scares storm systems to death...
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Post by greene728 on Apr 5, 2014 19:39:54 GMT -5
Good deal!!! I love following the weather and some good ole spring time boomers. But, I can live without the twisty stuff and damage.
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blood
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Post by blood on Apr 6, 2014 6:51:15 GMT -5
I'm so discappointed
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Apr 6, 2014 11:07:53 GMT -5
Raining here .
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keebs
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Post by keebs on Apr 6, 2014 12:18:26 GMT -5
house shaking thunder boomers woke me about 4:30ish or so this morning......... turned into steady, steady rain now.
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 6, 2014 13:38:31 GMT -5
house shaking thunder boomers woke me about 4:30ish or so this morning......... turned into steady, steady rain now. I'd like about an hour shower jis to warsh the pollen down, but I'm afeared we're gonna get a tad more rain than that before it's all said and done.
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Post by jmfauver on Apr 6, 2014 14:30:23 GMT -5
I'm going to shave my head so I can't pull out what little hair I have that remains on my head. You'd think Waffle House is entering the parameter data for each model run. Here's the skinny on the 12z run of the GFS, NAM, UKMET, ECMWF models. Every single one of them are backing the CAD event back up into NC again, just as I had originally posted concerning this system. The 9z run of the SREF concurs as well, and posts off the wall 500 and 1000 j/kg CAPE figures for Alabama with lesser values making it in to Georgia by mid afternoon on Monday. Lesser values are not a good thing btw. No values as we had on this morning's model runs would be a good thing. Rather than adjusting my potential severe map I'm going to give the models one more run before I make a set decision of direction on this one. I might even try some Karo Syrup on this mess to see if it will add some cohesiveness to the entire structure of events. As the model runs stand right now, Georgia is back in the soup, just not as hot of a soup as it was initially.
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