jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 7:19:45 GMT -5
Still with us two runs later. We'll see how that holds up on the GFS models, however the NAM is within range how, and it typically handles three day out events with more accuracy. (see bottom map for NAM 15z period).
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 10:26:59 GMT -5
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 10:43:46 GMT -5
Here's the NOAA total winter precip coverage map through Tue. morning. As it progresses I will update it, also, like I told Robbie at brefus this mornin. The closer we get to 24 hours out, the more I rely on the NWS maps over the models for accuracy. The numbers on the scale to the left that correlate with the colors on the map represent percentage chances of greater than one inch of accumulation, not actual inches in depth. Any way you look at it, Hillbilly is gonna get snow bombed again and is probably about ready to move to South Florida.
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Post by jmffish on Feb 8, 2014 12:47:57 GMT -5
Hillbilly won't survive in Floridah....they don't like guns!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 16:21:55 GMT -5
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Post by jmffish on Feb 8, 2014 16:56:55 GMT -5
poor Hillbilly
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blood
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Post by blood on Feb 8, 2014 17:13:26 GMT -5
HMIMBY
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 17:24:26 GMT -5
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 17:28:29 GMT -5
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Post by jmffish on Feb 8, 2014 17:29:20 GMT -5
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 17:35:37 GMT -5
And just to be fair, because I never want to "NOT" give you all of the weather information out there that I'm looking at.(at least that portion of what I'm looking at that will make the most sense to you) The WPC / NWS still isn't giving up on wintery precip for N. GA. Here is the two maps; #1 Freezing rain percentage of probability and #2 Snow percentage of probability.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 17:43:32 GMT -5
Need a closer look?
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blood
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Post by blood on Feb 8, 2014 21:43:00 GMT -5
bring on the power outage!!!!
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 8, 2014 21:43:28 GMT -5
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keebs
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Post by keebs on Feb 8, 2014 23:50:07 GMT -5
nuttin for me!!!!!!!
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Post by sos on Feb 9, 2014 0:13:00 GMT -5
No soup for you!
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Post by sos on Feb 9, 2014 0:13:56 GMT -5
I hope it's just rain. These polar vortex things are crazy here lately.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 9, 2014 2:27:55 GMT -5
I hope it's just rain. These polar vortex things are crazy here lately. Up where you are I think you are going to have Vortex gradoo all over you by the time this thing is done.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 9, 2014 3:49:32 GMT -5
You would think, if the NWS/WPC actually believed that we had a 5o% or greater shot at freezing rain over a two to three day period they would issue something more than a "special weather statement" for the northern half of Ga. Go figure!!! Anyway, here's the latest freezing rain percentage of probability map.
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bitteroot
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Post by bitteroot on Feb 9, 2014 5:18:51 GMT -5
Well that kinda is not good.....
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Post by gobbleinwoods on Feb 9, 2014 5:27:27 GMT -5
Well that kinda is not good..... But it is what it is. Some models have up to a foot of snow in the mtns.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 9, 2014 7:34:14 GMT -5
I was fixin to go on a rant about the NWS, since what happened last time WAS their fault, for the most part. But they finally, this morning, decided which way they were going to call this one. ALSO, and this is primarily for the few counties just south of the WS Watch, but includes all of them as a Cover yo hiney move on the NWS part Mainly because the NAM is showing this: And the GFS is showing this: Two totally different timelines and they have flipped on who gets what and when. Same crap setup we had last time so the NWS is acting out of cover your hiney policy to keep from getting chewed like we all know they did last time but nobody talked about it. The fact of what, when and where is going to happen still remains to be seen, but according to those two model maps mostly it will be a nasty cold drizzling rain for three days, with some freezing on elevated surfaces when the temps drop after sundown and potentially leaving some patchy black ice for the next morning. Snow can probably be expected in extreme N. Ga. (I think I started out calling it that way) as well as some flurries occasionally in lower elevations. THAT is what the models are showing right now, but what the NWS is saying is, we don't know exactly, but don't be surprised if you see this, and don't be surprised if you don't see it.
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Post by paymaster on Feb 9, 2014 7:35:30 GMT -5
Maybe we miss the mess here in Heard. Maps look like it and that is good.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 9, 2014 7:37:55 GMT -5
Maybe we miss the mess here in Heard. Maps look like it and that is good. I certainly hope we all do. I am sick and tired of these in-congruent model runs all winter this year and ready for some normal weather. I just hope we don't get this kind of disagreement between the models if it is an active STS season.
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Post by jmffish on Feb 9, 2014 7:44:30 GMT -5
Maybe we miss the mess here in Heard. Maps look like it and that is good. I certainly hope we all do. I am sick and tired of these in-congruent model runs all winter this year and ready for some normal weather. I just hope we don't get this kind of disagreement between the models if it is an active STS season. what??? Sleepless night don't agree with you.....JK ...I still don't understand half of this stuff, but I am learning more and more, and the more I learn the more I understand I don't know nothing about weather, so I just wait for you guys to post up, besides your more to my thinking on be prepared....
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Post by kracker on Feb 9, 2014 9:24:17 GMT -5
Weird, all around us is in the watch but Franklin and Stephens counties are not.
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blood
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Post by blood on Feb 9, 2014 9:25:55 GMT -5
Send me the worst of the worst with a few days without power! I got me a new generator I want to try out.... LOL!
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Post by jmffish on Feb 9, 2014 9:38:58 GMT -5
Weird, all around us is in the watch but Franklin and Stephens counties are not. Don't you just love the way some counties operate... Send me the worst of the worst with a few days without power! I got me a new generator I want to try out.... LOL!
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Post by Electronjockey on Feb 9, 2014 9:43:15 GMT -5
Send me the worst of the worst with a few days without power! I got me a new generator I want to try out.... LOL! Shhhhhhb. You
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Post by jmffish on Feb 9, 2014 9:44:59 GMT -5
Send me the worst of the worst with a few days without power! I got me a new generator I want to try out.... LOL! Shhhhhhb. You worst comes to worst you know where you can crash for a few days....
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