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Post by gobbleinwoods on Feb 2, 2014 7:03:29 GMT -5
Okay who is tuning in to Gobbler's Knob for the real weather predictions today?
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 2, 2014 7:33:34 GMT -5
Well Punxutawney Phil says 6 more weeks of winter. I never really did like that Yankee rodent much.
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blood
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Post by blood on Feb 2, 2014 9:11:45 GMT -5
Might even celebrate this first severe weather threat with a brand new chair! keep us posted
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Post by blood on Feb 2, 2014 9:13:23 GMT -5
Well Punxutawney Phil says 6 more weeks of winter. I never really did like that Yankee rodent much. sucker might make some good BBQ!
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 2, 2014 14:31:03 GMT -5
Well the latest GFS run puts the severe potential more out to our west. If it holds (which there's no way it will this far out) SE Miss. and most of Alabama would bear the brunt of the worst weather, with NW Ga possibly getting in on the action. One thing is for sure, a lot of moisture is going to fall between today and next Sunday in certain areas.
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Post by jmffish on Feb 2, 2014 14:33:02 GMT -5
Might even celebrate this first severe weather threat with a brand new chair! keep us posted He was imported from Florida
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 3, 2014 18:35:40 GMT -5
Watching the maps 7 days out is like watching the stock market. Unless you are day trading it just doesn't mean a whole lot because it seems to bounce around so much. HOWEVER, it's still fun to do. I'm standing by my severe potential for the 8th / 9th period and this run (at least) seems to insist on snow on the backside of the low, but I will reiterate, that is the classic cold chasing the moisture with a dry slot usually working it's way into the back of the low making it fast and short lived.
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Post by gobbleinwoods on Feb 4, 2014 5:05:55 GMT -5
That low sure is tight when it gets to Delaware.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 4, 2014 5:44:42 GMT -5
That low sure is tight when it gets to Delaware. It's gonna rock n roll up the east coast. Glad I don't live there.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 4, 2014 7:22:19 GMT -5
I could give you a passel of gobbledegook but truth of the matter is the model runs haven't changed that much in a agreeable fashion, so we'll just keep watchin them for another day or so to see if they stick with my last forecast.
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Post by blood on Feb 4, 2014 22:28:25 GMT -5
Brang on the bad stuff!!!
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 5, 2014 18:01:12 GMT -5
Tomorrow night there should be a small disturbance breezing through town between 9pm and midnight. It might drop a flurry or two, but nothing eventful or worth staying up to see. On a brighter note, even when it's 50 outside it's cold as the dickens now if you're in the wind. Why you ask? Well over 64% of the country has snow or ice on the ground, and when that wind coming across the country towards us has to cross all of that cold ground and cold air then the wind itself is super cooled by that process. I wonder what Al "the monon" Gore has to say about that?
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Post by jmffish on Feb 5, 2014 18:02:37 GMT -5
Tomorrow night there should be a small disturbance breezing through town between 9pm and midnight. It might drop a flurry or two, but nothing eventful or worth staying up to see. On a brighter note, even when it's 50 outside it's cold as the dickens now if you're in the wind. Why you ask? Well over 64% of the country has snow or ice on the ground, and when that wind coming across the country towards us has to cross all of that cold ground and cold air then the wind itself is super cooled by that process. I wonder what Al "the monon" Gore has to say about that? He invented the internet.....
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Feb 6, 2014 9:12:11 GMT -5
That wind is COLD !!!
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Post by Electronjockey on Feb 6, 2014 9:33:07 GMT -5
Funny, last night around 8, we received a robo call stating that school may be closed or delayed friday. Now the idjits are over reacting LMAO!
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 6, 2014 11:05:08 GMT -5
Yes they are. And these idiots are educating your kids.
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Post by blood on Feb 6, 2014 12:59:11 GMT -5
North Paulding district don't need anymore screw ups!
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 6, 2014 13:06:56 GMT -5
Well we once again have differing models giving differing forecast hardly even 8 hours away from an event. The 12z run of the NAM shows us high and dry. In contrast the 12z run of the GFS shows us smack dab in the middle of the funny blue stuff on the model map for about 3 or 4 hours. If you want to be a professional meteorologist for tonight's forecast all you have to do is flip a coin.......
I'm really not expecting anything to write home about, if anything at all.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 6, 2014 14:02:40 GMT -5
Told you next week would be interesting. Here's what WXSouth is posting on their FB page about the potential.
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Post by jmffish on Feb 6, 2014 16:40:37 GMT -5
goody
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Post by Electronjockey on Feb 6, 2014 18:42:29 GMT -5
Yes they are. And these idiots are educating your kids. Aight, I am canceling school next week because you said so. Wed good to cancel?
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 6, 2014 21:43:01 GMT -5
Yes they are. And these idiots are educating your kids. Aight, I am canceling school next week because you said so. Wed good to cancel? Not because I said so,that's for sure. WXSouth is a good FB page but tends to be on the "Wish" side of wintery forecast sometimes and a touch more drama than might be warranted occasionally makes it into these type events. Currently the GFS is indicating this might be an extreme N. Ga. event (Tn. NC. border) if it happens. But the way the models have been waffling this winter I'll stick with a vote of minimal confidence in their fantasycast at this moment. I'm not too much about drama in forecasting, especially with winter weather. But when I get my hackles up over Severe weather, it isn't drama, it's a DRT moment for you if you trust my weather reading skills. (Define the Relationship) for those of you not familiar with the term. I like to save my jumping and screaming for life threatening events.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 7, 2014 8:08:06 GMT -5
I'm not changing my opinion of this upcoming system that the other weather blogs are all up in arms about. They are doing fairy dances about the CAD showing strong potential (Cold Air Damming) which would be cold air slipping down the backside from the NE down through NC and SC. On this map you would see a trough dip in the 1024, 1026 and 1028 isobars over the Carolinas turning sharply back down into Ga. As you can see by this model run of the GFS that it simply doesn't exist right now. On runs a few hours later as the system progresses past us you will notice some CAD effect setting up, ( see map below) but at that point the Temps have shifted North and East as well, along with the pressure conversion lines so at that point it will be too little too late to make anything out of this for us. Of course, if things take a dramatic turn in the model representations for this system next Tuesday / Wednesday y'all will be the first to know, but thus far it's business as normal, outside of a little rain. I'm still watching the runs forecasting a developing low in the Gulf that could move up through Bama bringing us some STS weather Wed into Thur. but at this point the CAD that is showing to develop after the main front comes through would keep that LPS well to the south of us and suppress any severe potential. This is also known as the classic Tommy Hunter Set-up........ On this map notice the low staying in the gulf with the CAD (cold air trough) well in place keeping it suppressed well to the south, with the cold temp lines well to our NE. This is for Thursday.
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Feb 7, 2014 8:52:15 GMT -5
Got some sleet last night here in Washington Co.
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Post by blood on Feb 7, 2014 9:05:22 GMT -5
Got some sleet last night here in Washington Co. what's that got to do with the price of eggs? This is the weather thread monon!
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Feb 7, 2014 9:10:33 GMT -5
Got some sleet last night here in Washington Co. what's that got to do with the price of eggs? This is the weather thread monon! I said SLEET, not SLEEP, ya idjit . .
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Post by blood on Feb 7, 2014 12:09:46 GMT -5
what's that got to do with the price of eggs? This is the weather thread monon! I said SLEET, not SLEEP, ya idjit . . LOL!!!!
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Post by jmffish on Feb 7, 2014 14:02:48 GMT -5
I reported what the GFS was indicating, then I gave my forecast (said what I meant) Closet Georgia Tech Fan.... This is a weather thread not a sport's as they are against the rules.
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Post by jmfauver on Feb 7, 2014 17:29:05 GMT -5
Hesitant to post this because of the waffling, but I promised I would let you know if the GFS changes on any particular run, and on this latest 18z run it gives us about 5 hours of frozen precip in N. Ga. on Tuesday. This is by no means a set in stone forecast, and WILL change multiple times over the next few days.
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Post by blood on Feb 7, 2014 17:43:37 GMT -5
Hesitant to post this because of the waffling, but I promised I would let you know if the GFS changes on any particular run, and on this latest 18z run it gives us about 5 hours of frozen precip in N. Ga. on Tuesday. This is by no means a set in stone forecast, and WILL change multiple times over the next few days. thanks for the update Hugh
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