blood
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Post by blood on Jan 26, 2014 12:25:53 GMT -5
Time for the milk and bread run? You forgot your TP!!!!!!!!!!! Time for the beer and likker run? Fixed it fer ya! we have a magnolia tree in the front yard! Use very little TP! I'm up for a beer run!
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blood
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Post by blood on Jan 26, 2014 12:29:55 GMT -5
Time for the beer and likker run? Fixed it fer ya! I'm over on Dabbs bridge. Me you and Jeff need to hook up. Jeff is so close to me I got his wife talked into swinging by an picking up the kids for school.
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jmfauver
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 13:05:25 GMT -5
The NAM and GFS have been consistent and nearly congruent for two runs now. We'll see what the 18z run offers this evening. The 72hr sounding still doesn't give me confidence that the piedmont won't be looking at more of a nasty ice event as opposed to snow.
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Jan 26, 2014 13:10:22 GMT -5
Glad I'm gonna be off Wed, Thurs and Friday !!
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jeffraines
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Post by jeffraines on Jan 26, 2014 13:16:49 GMT -5
I'm over on Dabbs bridge. Me you and Jeff need to hook up. Jeff is so close to me I got his wife talked into swinging by an picking up the kids for school. It's true.....she has picked them up and dropped them off several times.
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jeffraines
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Post by jeffraines on Jan 26, 2014 13:17:58 GMT -5
Glad I'm gonna be off Wed, Thurs and Friday !! Snow party at da luv shaque?.....how's the ice skating rink?
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 13:18:48 GMT -5
Glad I'm gonna be off Wed, Thurs and Friday !! It will be moving in on Tuesday night. You workin night or day shift? Let me further illustrate what I am seeing in the sounding I keep referring to and just posted a pic of. Ice storms occur when cold air is brought in at the surface and warmer moist air is overriding it at the midrange levels of the atmosphere. The set up we have moving in, if the models hold true over the next few runs, for the piedmont region of Ga. will be cold air being brought in at the surface from the NE by a high pressure system while warm moist gulf air is pumped in over it from the SW. This results in the demonstrated soundings as well as is reflected in this illustration: But like I said, I still want to see more consistent model runs, because the 540 pressure line is still well NNW of this forecast in our state, which is where the snow would occur were the moisture to move in a little further to the north than currently modeled.
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Jan 26, 2014 14:00:27 GMT -5
Glad I'm gonna be off Wed, Thurs and Friday !! Snow party at da luv shaque?.....how's the ice skating rink? Could be !!! Pool's covered, hmmmmmm... Glad I'm gonna be off Wed, Thurs and Friday !! It will be moving in on Tuesday night. You workin night or day shift? Let me further illustrate what I am seeing in the sounding I keep referring to and just posted a pic of. Ice storms occur when cold air is brought in at the surface and warmer moist air is overriding it at the midrange levels of the atmosphere. The set up we have moving in, if the models hold true over the next few runs, for the piedmont region of Ga. will be cold air being brought in at the surface from the NE by a high pressure system while warm moist gulf air is pumped in over it from the SW. This results in the demonstrated soundings as well as is reflected in this illustration: But like I said, I still want to see more consistent model runs, because the 540 pressure line is still well NNW of this forecast in our state, which is where the snow would occur were the moisture to move in a little further to the north than currently modeled. Working day side 12's Mon and Tues.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 15:26:02 GMT -5
Well, the NWS is all in with both feet.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 312 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
GAZ036>039-046>062-066>076-078>084-089>096-102>107-270415- /O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0002.140128T1500Z-140129T1800Z/ CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN- GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY- BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON- LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS- TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-MUSCOGEE- CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-STEWART- WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN... PEACHTREE CITY...GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS... WARNER ROBINS...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...CORDELE 312 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET.
* ACCUMULATIONS....SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO OR MORE INCHES. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ALONG A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE...AND MAY UNDERCUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 PM TUESDAY AND 5 AM WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL IN THE TO LOWER 30S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH VALUES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 2 PM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 15:38:01 GMT -5
This one is for my SOWEGA friends, just as I predicted if this came together. It's going to be ice. The worst nightmare outside of STS weather. Worse is if it does convert from freezing rain to sleet and snow, thus weighting down the infrastructure and trees. I hope you folks down south have your firewood piled high and your generators ready.
All of this is dependent on a 700mb shortwave developing, so this is still in watch and see mode, but the congruency of the last two model runs has forced a Watch to be issued. Remember, a Watch means the circumstances are possible. A Warning means it is eminent.
Event: Winter Storm Watch Alert:
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... .AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY COLD AIR STREAMING IN BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * MAIN IMPACT...ICY ROADS AND BRIDGES. * OTHER IMPACTS...IF THERE IS MORE FREEZING RAIN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...POWER OUTAGES COULD BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH A VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 16:05:06 GMT -5
18z NAM is in and I'm not certain I'm buying this far south of a push. On the map the 546 pressure lines where the precip is showing blue is warm air aloft, with the 540 p-line well to the north where any convergence to liquid precip would be snow, but isn't showing on this map. This means that where you see blue would predominately be a very nasty ice and freezing rain event (as I feared very early on). We now have to wait on the 18z GFS to see if it is in agreement.
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Post by nicodemus on Jan 26, 2014 16:55:27 GMT -5
Hate it for those who are not prepared. Myself, I am ready, and hope for snow. We can do without ice. Line crews are gonna catch the devil.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 16:59:24 GMT -5
Hate it for those who are not prepared. Myself, I am ready, and hope for snow. We can do without ice. Line crews are gonna catch the devil. Tell Sasquatch not to park Green under any trees Tuesday or Wednesday.
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Post by nicodemus on Jan 26, 2014 17:09:19 GMT -5
Will do!! That boy better not scuff Green!!
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Post by gobbleinwoods on Jan 26, 2014 17:48:21 GMT -5
I am thinking we will be doing some of this
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 17:50:09 GMT -5
I am thinking we will be doing some of this Maybe, somebody might. Once again the GFS and NAM are in disagreement, but this time it's not a what's going to happen, but where. But it is disagreement none the less. This could be one of those systems where we really don't know what and where is going to happen until it actually happens.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 18:22:59 GMT -5
IFThe GFS proved out as shown on the above map here is the scenario as I see it unfolding. There's still more model runs needed and more consistency needed from the runs for me to feel comfortable with this system. But like I said, somebody, somewhere is going to get something.White would be snow Gray would be a mix of sleet/snow/ice Blue would be ice/freezing rain Again, this is merely conjecture based on the 18z GFS run.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 18:40:26 GMT -5
Well dang. The NWS did all that work for me.... At least I'm in agreement with them on the what and where IF the GFS stands up over the next 60 hours.
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keebs
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Post by keebs on Jan 26, 2014 20:03:39 GMT -5
Shuggums, I have my camera charged, the propane tanks ready and all other "precautions" I can think of, BUT, you have my number in case I need to know anything more............. I'm excited & scared at the same time..........
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 20:04:35 GMT -5
Shuggums, I have my camera charged, the propane tanks ready and all other "precautions" I can think of, BUT, you have my number in case I need to know anything more............. I'm excited & scared at the same time.......... Yes ma'am.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 20:55:41 GMT -5
00z NAM is running now. Should be interesting to see how this turns out.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 21:38:04 GMT -5
With the exception of that one NAM run being out of phase I would say we now have congruency, and barring any changes in the 700mb short wave that should be streaking out of the Rockies we can almost call this one set as illustrated on the last run by the GFS. Any changes from here on out will strictly be associated with the short wave and it's path and speed of progress. From a timing perspective, and according to this run, we could expect to see frozen precip developing across the state around noon on Tuesday. Now it's a wait and see game for the most part.
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Post by spanky on Jan 26, 2014 21:51:10 GMT -5
Well so much for 6"+! Oh well we can still have fun with 2"
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Post by robbie101 on Jan 26, 2014 21:59:59 GMT -5
Well so much for 6"+! Oh well we can still have fun with 2" Hey Spanky made a post lol. So whatcha thinking grit. Should we call off Awana Wednesday or wait another day or so to make that call?
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 22:05:56 GMT -5
Well so much for 6"+! Oh well we can still have fun with 2" Hey Spanky made a post lol. So whatcha thinking grit. Should we call off Awana Wednesday or wait another day or so to make that call? Wait another day, if it's not too much trouble.
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Post by robbie101 on Jan 26, 2014 22:07:41 GMT -5
Hey Spanky made a post lol. So whatcha thinking grit. Should we call off Awana Wednesday or wait another day or so to make that call? Wait another day, if it's not too much trouble. 10 fo. We run a bus that picks up and drops off the majority of the little ones. I think they've already decided to call it off due to HVAC issues.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 22:10:56 GMT -5
Wait another day, if it's not too much trouble. 10 fo. We run a bus that picks up and drops off the majority of the little ones. I think they've already decided to call it off due to HVAC issues. No heatin, no meetin, that's the way it should go. ;)
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blood
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Post by blood on Jan 27, 2014 1:32:10 GMT -5
I'm ready for a ice storm .... Got firewood, Vienna sausages, water?, BEER, an flashlights!
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 27, 2014 3:33:18 GMT -5
Very little noticeable difference between the 06z run that just now dropped this map, and the 00z run for the same time period. This is consistency. Now we just wait on the GFS to run to see if we have agreement (congruency). I'm suspecting we will.
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blood
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Post by blood on Jan 27, 2014 3:42:28 GMT -5
Looks like I'm out of the game right?
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