blood
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Post by blood on Jan 24, 2014 19:25:09 GMT -5
I just wait for ya'll to spell it out...I can read and fix code but still can't read these dang maps and things.... me either... They meteorgonagolagist or sumthin!
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Post by robbie101 on Jan 24, 2014 20:06:17 GMT -5
I just wait for ya'll to spell it out...I can read and fix code but still can't read these dang maps and things.... me either... They meteorgonagolagist or sumthin! No worries guys. Y'all ain't alone.
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Jan 24, 2014 21:09:00 GMT -5
26 degrees and dropping in the chalk mines.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 24, 2014 22:03:11 GMT -5
26 degrees and dropping in the chalk mines. It's a balmy 16 here. Gonna be a good night for a snooze. Might even crack the winders open a bit.
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ddd
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Post by ddd on Jan 24, 2014 22:09:02 GMT -5
The NAM is a huge step in the right direction!
This set up is very, very similar to the 2010 storm. The GFS was showing the energy going to Cuba. So... I think a lot more time needs to roll off, but I am optimistic about what is to come.
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ernestt
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Post by ernestt on Jan 24, 2014 23:32:56 GMT -5
Keep the good news coming. My kids want some snow.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 25, 2014 0:08:49 GMT -5
Here's what DDD is referring to. NAM (84hrs out is the limit) Here's the GEM (Canadian for the same time frame) And the GFS for the same.
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ddd
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Post by ddd on Jan 25, 2014 7:47:08 GMT -5
Quick update before I head off to do some basketball.
The EURO has lost the storm. The GFS lost it but now on the 6z runs is coming back IMO. The NAM says, get out the sleds and let's make a snowman. The nam had shown this look for the last 2 runs and now we can actually see the time in question. The SERF (short range mode) is advertising 4" north of I-20.
I went back on the other site and read thread III and IV from the 2010-2011 winter. Specifically the January storm of 2011.
That system did the same thing. Models had it at 6-7 day range. Lost it. Local mets would not call for it but I was screaming about it. To me this is very similar. I look for the models to get on the snow train over the next 24-36 hours.
More later this afternoon.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 25, 2014 7:53:22 GMT -5
Quick update before I head off to do some basketball. The EURO has lost the storm. The GFS lost it but now on the 6z runs is coming back IMO. The NAM says, get out the sleds and let's make a snowman. The nam had shown this look for the last 2 runs and now we can actually see the time in question. The SERF (short range mode) is advertising 4" north of I-20. I went back on the other site and read thread III and IV from the 2010-2011 winter. Specifically the January storm of 2011. That system did the same thing. Models had it at 6-7 day range. Lost it. Local mets would not call for it but I was screaming about it. To me this is very similar. I look for the models to get on the snow train over the next 24-36 hours. More later this afternoon. Here's the snow bomb DDD is referring too. During STS weather we consider the NAM to be bomb proof 3 days out. We'll see if that holds true for WW.
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blood
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Post by blood on Jan 25, 2014 8:32:55 GMT -5
Bring on the cold and snow and more cold!
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Jan 25, 2014 8:59:15 GMT -5
Thanks DDD and Hugh, 'preciate the updates !!! Might have to drive da "Beast" to work Monday . .
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Post by hillbilly on Jan 25, 2014 12:11:26 GMT -5
It's snowing here. As usual.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 25, 2014 12:15:41 GMT -5
It's snowing here. As usual. Are you starting to get cravings for seal blubber and raw fish?
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Post by Electronjockey on Jan 25, 2014 13:28:25 GMT -5
Time to sacrifice the sleds. They've been nothing but a Jinx!
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Jan 25, 2014 13:47:44 GMT -5
Low of 12 here this morning at 725 am. Nice out now, that I've cleaned the fire place, loaded it with wood...
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 25, 2014 15:17:38 GMT -5
Low of 12 here this morning at 725 am. Nice out now, that I've cleaned the fire place, loaded it with wood... That means it'll hit 60 tomorrow at yo place...
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 25, 2014 15:56:12 GMT -5
Dang models got down right boring on the last run. I'm ready for STS season and some consistency in forecasting models.
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Post by Hooked on Quack on Jan 25, 2014 16:39:31 GMT -5
Grrrrr, 48 here now, got the fireplace loaded and a stack of wood brought in . . .
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paymaster
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Post by paymaster on Jan 25, 2014 17:32:49 GMT -5
Well sun or snow I am fine with but no ice please. Thanks for keeping us updated guys!
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blood
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Post by blood on Jan 25, 2014 17:34:34 GMT -5
Dang models got down right boring on the last run. I'm ready for STS season and some consistency in forecasting models. not me, I love the cold even if it ain't snowing!
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bml
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Post by bml on Jan 25, 2014 17:43:26 GMT -5
Well, if nothing else, hopefully all this cold killed off some skeeters and other nuisance critters. Maybe it killed a few dang Kudzu Bugs!
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 25, 2014 17:52:52 GMT -5
Well, if nothing else, hopefully all this cold killed off some skeeters and other nuisance critters. Maybe it killed a few dang Kudzu Bugs! Cold don't kill skeeter ;) I like the kudzu bugs. Contrary to what the state biologists say, since they've been swarming the last few years the kudzu patch next to my lot has shrunk considerably.
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bml
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Post by bml on Jan 25, 2014 17:57:45 GMT -5
True, they do eat up some kudzu, but they will ruin a patch of beans in your garden faster than almost anything else Ive seen.
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Post by Electronjockey on Jan 25, 2014 18:53:53 GMT -5
Sick of it, GO AWAY!. Time for Baseball. Last year, Oso Blanco had to play in the snow. Please make this Global Warming stop. Thanks, that is all.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 3:11:24 GMT -5
Sick of it, GO AWAY!. Time for Baseball. Last year, Oso Blanco had to play in the snow. Please make this Global Warming stop. Thanks, that is all. More model runs drawing a blank. The consensus of these runs are not in the favor of anything to brag about. What I mean by all of that is, out of six runs a day, and looking at the GEM, NAM and GFS, if only one of those runs has a snowbomb and he other 5 don't, then logic dictates that somebody is inputting faulty data into the system for that one run consistently, not that 1 run out of 6 is more accurate. The bad thing about winter weather forecasts, when there isn't consistency and congruency among models, is that the percentages for an event shrink exponentially. There is always that freak location and freak event, but nothing you can bet your amateur bottom no dollars on. Give me 3 different models saying 5 out of the 6 runs are a snowbomb and we've got something to talk about, but not the other way around. Like I said, I'm ready for STS season and consistency in forecast models.
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Post by jmfauver on Jan 26, 2014 7:11:51 GMT -5
Somebody asked for an update......sheesh.....another one already? The 06z run (our latest) seems to be the one that insist on winter precip. Especially the NAM and now the GFS. HOWEVER, and just as I stated a good many posts back, looking at the bulk shear soundings, down in SOWEGA in particular where all kind of winterpalooza is being called for, the jet at 500mb is going to be warm and fast. In fact the air temps are too warm for winter precip to fall all of the way down to 900mb and then at 1000mb they hit the 0c mark and a tick below. Just as I stated many posts ago, this was a marginal setup, and when rain falls through a cold layer at the surface what you get is freezing rain, not snow, and occasionally sleet, but that would require a thicker layer of cold nearer the surface. I still want to see this forecast repeated in the models over the next 2 runs today and all runs tomorrow before I buy into it. There are just too many conflicting variables for this to be a stable set up. Soundings for Macon northward are more stable with not as volatile a bulk shear. With mid level (800mb and up) temps closer to the 0-5c mark allowing for a greater possibility of snow falling, IF the moisture is there. There is still speculation just how far south the 540 line will be, and the only thing that will enhance activity is cold already in place at the surface. Today's temps are going to make skeptics out of a lot of folks. The only possible comparable scenario in past history that MIGHT resemble what we could get IF all of the cards fall into place better than they have thus far would be the Feb 9-10 snowstorm that pounded the Piedmont region of Ga. with only rain and light freezing rain in SOWEGA and left N. Ga high and dry. I just need more consistent (over all of the models over all four runs every day) modelling before I buy into the what, when and where IF anything is going to be worthy of flailing my arms about to announce it to the world. Call me a skeptic, I can live with that.
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ddd
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Post by ddd on Jan 26, 2014 7:18:16 GMT -5
Good morning. Every model had come back north and west. This is going to be a huge thump for central Ga.
NOAA has atlanta in the 10% probability to see 4+" of snow.
6z GFS is sampling the energy much, much better and is coming to the solution I thought. Another run or two of the models and it will be call time.
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blood
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Post by blood on Jan 26, 2014 10:16:08 GMT -5
Time for the milk and bread run?
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Post by jmffish on Jan 26, 2014 11:07:55 GMT -5
Time for the milk and bread run? You forgot your TP!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Electronjockey on Jan 26, 2014 11:17:39 GMT -5
Time for the beer and likker run? Fixed it fer ya!
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