A little forecast info for you Waders to cover the next few days. Summaries are edited to remove the regions that don't apply to us. Basically, the popup storms will continue and some of them will be real bears.
SPC AC 080600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
TO PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE APPALACHIANS. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK EWD AND
REACH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE CENTERED FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BE INDUCED OVER ERN CO...BEFORE EVOLVING INTO
CNTRL KS EARLY MON.
A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY
DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE NRN APPALACHIANS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TRAILING PORTION BEING CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO W TX. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL DIVE S/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH A COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE AND EVENTUALLY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WILL LIE ACROSS CO WHERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE NUMEROUS. BUT WITH
RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODEST MID-LEVEL
WINDS...MULTICELLS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. THE SRN FRINGE OF
THIS DEVELOPMENT /INVOF RATON MESA/ WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO GROW UPSCALE WITH AN ORGANIZED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK
EVOLVING E/SEWD THIS EVENING.
...OK/TX TO MS/AL...
AN MCV SHOULD EVOLVE OUT OF AN MCS...CURRENTLY OVER SW OK/S PLAINS
OF NW TX...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DECAY BY 12Z. THIS MCV COULD HELP
FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE
ARKLATEX EWD TOWARDS PARTS OF MS/AL. 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD LARGE BUOYANCY ALONG AND S OF THE COMPOSITE
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW...SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE
WIND/HAIL.
...APPALACHIANS...
NAM/GFS/SREF SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST HEATING WILL OCCUR
TODAY COMPARED TO SAT WITH THE MCV-INDUCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EWD FROM THE IL/IND BORDER. STILL...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MARGINAL AND LIKELY YIELD A RELATIVELY THIN BUOYANCY PROFILE.
KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH GRADUAL FILLING OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE. STILL...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT...SETUP APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE
THE MAIN HAZARDS.
..GRAMS/MARSH.. 06/08/2014
SPC AC 080500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO PARTS OF
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-TO-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY 12Z TUESDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KS MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARD
SOUTHWEST MO...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP E/SE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING SWWD FROM CENTRAL AR INTO CENTRAL AND SW
TX BY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE
APPARENT IN TIMING/POSITION OF THESE FEATURES...LEADING TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL RESIDE ON
MONDAY.
ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AS ONE OR MORE MCS/S ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND TRACK EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW OVER A
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT AND ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PARTS OF
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX.
..LEITMAN.. 06/08/2014
SPC AC 080729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE TEXAS
GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SRN MO TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRACK NE
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW MOVING IN TANDEM
WITH UPPER LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT E/SE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS FRONT WILL BECOMING STALLED ACROSS SRN TX. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE FEATURES...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AND DEVELOP EWD
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. BUT A SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT FROM CNTRL VA SWD INTO SC...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...CNTRL NC/SC INTO E-CNTRL GA...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY CAPPING AND GENERALLY
WEAK/UNFOCUSED FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH
PW VALUES WILL RESULT IN BOTH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
..LEITMAN.. 06/08/2014