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Post by jmfauver on Jul 1, 2014 6:37:24 GMT -5
What a way to start the July forecast thread. Say good morning to TD-1 forecast to be Hurricane Arthur within the next 24 hours. If you'll remember the forecast from a few days ago when I told you that the North Carolina coast was going to be a bad place to be for the 4th of July, well, here it is.
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 1, 2014 13:42:03 GMT -5
Good news from the latest NAM runs if you're planning on being on the coast of NC for the 4th. The NAM has the cold front coming in from the NNW much faster and stronger than previous runs (still in line with my first BAMM predictions in the other thread) which introduces a ton of dry slotting into the system and blows it apart well before any of the activities get started. Here's the 5am projected simref radar.
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Post by jmffish on Jul 1, 2014 14:09:45 GMT -5
thanks for keeping us up to date...
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 1, 2014 16:09:40 GMT -5
Current projected percentages of Tropical Storm force winds.
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Post by jmffish on Jul 1, 2014 16:14:14 GMT -5
on the 5-10% line....
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blood
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July 2014
Jul 1, 2014 16:41:56 GMT -5
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Post by blood on Jul 1, 2014 16:41:56 GMT -5
Bring on Opal!
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 1, 2014 16:53:11 GMT -5
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Post by blood on Jul 1, 2014 18:14:35 GMT -5
Dude I had forgotten about them! I bet that sucker gets great gas mileage.
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 1, 2014 18:33:42 GMT -5
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Post by gobbleinwoods on Jul 2, 2014 5:52:57 GMT -5
That was exciting.
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Post by blood on Jul 2, 2014 6:57:41 GMT -5
I'm ready for high winds and rain!!
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 2, 2014 6:58:24 GMT -5
It can be if you are living down in that area. Here's a close up of the Tybee / Skidaway Island area. Fortunately for them tide is going to be about 7.0' at high tide as opposed to the 10.0' on a full moon spring tide. Unfortunately for them, and the folks that live near the yellow spots on the map, if the storm comes close enough to the shore then the winds will actually pile the water up in the creeks and rivers regardless of what the tide is and then pile the surge up on top of that. It could be a wet windy day for some of the folks in the older homes that don't sit above the 13.5+ ft. ASL foundation requirements of the new code.
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Post by jmffish on Jul 2, 2014 16:53:22 GMT -5
I'm ready for high winds and rain!! I got no worries no more trees to come down on my house, so bring it!!!!!
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Post by jmffish on Jul 2, 2014 16:54:09 GMT -5
It can be if you are living down in that area. Here's a close up of the Tybee / Skidaway Island area. Fortunately for them tide is going to be about 7.0' at high tide as opposed to the 10.0' on a full moon spring tide. Unfortunately for them, and the folks that live near the yellow spots on the map, if the storm comes close enough to the shore then the winds will actually pile the water up in the creeks and rivers regardless of what the tide is and then pile the surge up on top of that. It could be a wet windy day for some of the folks in the older homes that don't sit above the 13.5+ ft. ASL foundation requirements of the new code. Those are the folks who lose in these storms no matter what happens....Year in and year out they get flooded.....
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 2, 2014 16:58:26 GMT -5
I'm ready for high winds and rain!! I got no worries no more trees to come down on my house, so bring it!!!!! Otis left all of his trees. He's a closet Auburn fan and likes to go out and throw toilet paper up in them on the rare occasion that Auburn wins a game.
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Post by jmffish on Jul 2, 2014 17:07:55 GMT -5
I got no worries no more trees to come down on my house, so bring it!!!!! Otis left all of his trees. He's a closet Auburn fan and likes to go out and throw toilet paper up in them on the rare occasion that Auburn wins a game. Ummmm, okay.....
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blood
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Post by blood on Jul 2, 2014 18:06:59 GMT -5
I got no worries no more trees to come down on my house, so bring it!!!!! Otis left all of his trees. He's a closet Auburn fan and likes to go out and throw toilet paper up in them on the rare occasion that Auburn wins a game. Please don't use that A word in here anymore! There is hope for the helpless!
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Post by blood on Jul 3, 2014 7:24:08 GMT -5
Kurt Mellish gave his forecast this morning and said that the humidity should be down for the weekend. sounds good to me!!!
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 3, 2014 8:15:23 GMT -5
Kurt Mellish gave his forecast this morning and said that the humidity should be down for the weekend. sounds good to me!!! Cold fronts tend to do that. ;)
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Post by savreds on Jul 3, 2014 11:07:27 GMT -5
It can be if you are living down in that area. Here's a close up of the Tybee / Skidaway Island area. Fortunately for them tide is going to be about 7.0' at high tide as opposed to the 10.0' on a full moon spring tide. Unfortunately for them, and the folks that live near the yellow spots on the map, if the storm comes close enough to the shore then the winds will actually pile the water up in the creeks and rivers regardless of what the tide is and then pile the surge up on top of that. It could be a wet windy day for some of the folks in the older homes that don't sit above the 13.5+ ft. ASL foundation requirements of the new code. It's pretty much a non-event on da coast, a little breeze and sum clowds. My ground floor elevation is 16'. The water will come across the road in front of my house at about an 11' tide!
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 3, 2014 11:27:01 GMT -5
It is wayyyyy past you now, up in the northern coastal region of SC fixin to impact southern coastal NC with some pretty good rain and squalls.
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Post by jmffish on Jul 3, 2014 15:04:19 GMT -5
Kurt Mellish gave his forecast this morning and said that the humidity should be down for the weekend. sounds good to me!!! Cold fronts tend to do that. ;)
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Post by crickett on Jul 3, 2014 18:06:35 GMT -5
It is wayyyyy past you now, up in the northern coastal region of SC fixin to impact southern coastal NC with some pretty good rain and squalls. No maps?
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 3, 2014 18:34:41 GMT -5
It is wayyyyy past you now, up in the northern coastal region of SC fixin to impact southern coastal NC with some pretty good rain and squalls. No maps? Sure, this good?
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Post by jmffish on Jul 3, 2014 20:03:44 GMT -5
No maps? Sure, this good? sweet map I used to be stationed in WA state...
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 3, 2014 21:04:01 GMT -5
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Post by crickett on Jul 3, 2014 21:26:14 GMT -5
I don't like you right now! Smarty pants!
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Post by jmffish on Jul 4, 2014 4:30:45 GMT -5
I don't like you right now! Smarty pants!
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Post by jmfauver on Jul 4, 2014 5:01:08 GMT -5
I don't like you right now! Smarty pants!
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Post by gobbleinwoods on Jul 4, 2014 7:09:12 GMT -5
Sure feels like a fall morning out there today.
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